Parking selection tips: May 29

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After the holiday weekend, Wilkes Graham checks in with updated Rams Club parking selection stats for the four-day week.

Demand on Friday dropped 19% to only 0.72 spots/slot, or 173 spots out of 240 time slots.  Given the level of interest in Bowles, which now accounts for 54% of all remaining spots, I predict that Bowles will fill up between 10:46AM Friday, June 1st and 10:36AM on Monday, June 4th.  See the analysis below for my logic, which starts with a prediction of total demand for this week followed by thoughts on how much demand should go to Bowles.

 Interestingly, while demand averaged only 0.84 spots/slot last week, expect demand to increase back up to about 1.0 spot/slot this week if last year’s trends hold.  I’ll use some rough numbers here to make the comparison easier to illustrate:

Last year, over the first 380 slots, demand was 2.25.  This year, demand was 2.38 (over the first 240 slots).

Last year, over the next 960 slots, demand was 1.48.  This year, demand was 1.46.

Last year, over the next 1700 slots, demand was 1.04.  This year, demand was 1.08.

Last year, over the next 1200 slots, demand was 0.88.  This year, demand was 0.87 (over the next 1440 spots – this was last week).

Last year, over the next 960 slots, demand was 1.00.    This represents the coming week for this year, and thus we should see demand pick back up again this week over last week by about 15%. 

Last year, over the final 576 slots, demand dropped back down to 0.72.  This should probably also happen this year, although presumably over more time slots.

To reiterate, expect demand to increase back up to 1.0 spot/slot this week, which means about 960 selections over this short 4-day week.  For Bowles to fill up by Friday at 5pm, demand at Bowles would need to approximate 55% of total demand.  Last year, over the comparable period for this week, demand at Bowles was 58.6%, and note that overall demand is up about 13% at Bowles thus far through this year’s selections (13.3% of total demand vs 11.8% last year).  As such, we could assume that demand at Bowles for this week could be as high as 66%, which would equate to Bowles selling out at 10:46AM on Friday, June 1st.  More conservatively, we could assume that demand at Bowles is only 50% of total demand this week, which would equate to Bowles selling out at 10:36AM on Monday, June 4th.  I think that’s a fair range of predictions for Bowles  - somewhere between 11AM Friday and 11AM next Monday.

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